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Dec 02, 2004


Jack Phelps

With respect to nanotech, both are correct! There is a lot of brilliance to come, but you get guys like ALTI who take shareholders for $144 million market cap based on a couple million bucks in revenues since 1977 and a whopping $650k last year, with products three years away from release if they pass trials, the markets for which are meager anyway. THAT'S why nano is a scam, because the only thing that differentiates 9/10 of the companies touting it currently is the number of times they scatter the word through their reporting.


I don't disagree with you at all on that, it's kind of like the early days of biotech.

Steve Shu

I haven't followed the Valentine thing that closely, but nanotech seems fascinating to me. Although I think we are starting to see that advances in computing technology (e.g., processor speed) may not be generating value for end consumers (until services and software catch up), there's just got to be applications for nanotech because everyone's always looking for smaller devices, sensors, transmitters, etc.

Olivier Travers

Seems you forgot to take the channel's margin off Halo's pricing to get to a MSFT topline number. If Amazon can sell it for $45, I imagine they buy it at a somewhat cheaper price. Still, even $150-200M is impressive.


the topline number is no different than a big movie opening reporting ticket sales as opposed to what the studio actually gets. As you point out, in either case it's a big number. I wonder what the lifetime revenue number from a game like Halo2 is expected to be.


I did have something to say about nanotech which is different from the mainstream view of it. Nanotech is not about building smaller and smaller components, or micro-sizing widgets, that's already in progress in many materials and electronics R&D shops out there. What it is is being able to build things from either base elements or simple molecules. And that's kinda its relationship to biotech is that molecular organisms (E. Coli or Mammalian Cells) create protein/drug components within their own living cell structures than in a biochemist synthesizing it in a series of beaker flasks.

Today, anything and everything, involving creating smaller components is dubbed a nanoproject and that's where it's a funding joke. If I'd shaved a piece of graphite into a line dot and called it a nano-pencil, that would be a joke. And unfortunately, much of the hype around it is exactly that.

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